Henderson, Oak Bay - September 2026 Real Estate Report

Henderson, Oak Bay: Your Home Is Worth More Than the City Thinks

If you own a place in Henderson and you have not looked at your HonestDoor Price lately, here is the short version - the city's assessment is running about $110,000 behind reality. That gap matters, especially if you are thinking about making a move this summer.

The Vibe - What Is Actually Happening on Our Streets

Henderson is a tale of two property types right now, and they are telling very different stories. Here is the honest breakdown for both of us.

Houses - Taking a Breather, But Still Competitive

If you have been watching the "For Sale" signs in Henderson lately, you have probably noticed things feel a little quieter. That is not your imagination. House prices are down 14.7% from last month, with the average sale landing at $1,075,000. Only one house sold this month, and listings are sitting at around $1,100,000. Buyers are paying about 97.73% of list price, so they are getting a small discount - but not a dramatic one.

The good news? Houses are still moving fast. Days on market is averaging just 7 days, which ranks us number 1 in Oak Bay for speed. When a well-priced house hits the market here, it does not sit around.

• Average sale price: $1,075,000 (down 14.7% from last month)
• Average list price: $1,100,000
• Price per square foot: $1,117
• Sale-to-list ratio: 97.73%
• Average days on market: 7 (ranked 1st in Oak Bay - fastest)
• Predicted market value: $1,593,249
• Estimated monthly rent: $5,779
• Rental yield: 3.99%
• Growth rank: 2nd out of 6 in Oak Bay
• Price rank: 5th out of 6 (among the more affordable options in Oak Bay)

The 3-month moving average for predicted value is $1,579,607, and we are trending above that at $1,593,249. So while the short-term sales data looks soft, the underlying value picture is actually creeping upward. That is worth paying attention to.

Condos - High-Value, Slower Moving

The condo side of Henderson is a different animal entirely. We are talking about a much higher price point - the average sale came in at $1,725,000 this month, with listings averaging $1,749,700. Buyers paid 98.59% of list, which is close to full price. The catch is that condos are sitting on the market for an average of 35 days, which ranks last in Oak Bay for speed. These are not quick flips - they are deliberate purchases for buyers who know exactly what they want.

• Average sale price: $1,725,000
• Average list price: $1,749,700
• Price per square foot: $1,024
• Sale-to-list ratio: 98.59%
• Average days on market: 35 (ranked 3rd out of 3 in Oak Bay - slowest)
• Predicted market value: $3,342,765
• Estimated monthly rent: $9,390
• Rental yield: 2.00%
• Airbnb potential: $487 per night (ranked 3rd in Oak Bay)
• Growth rank: 3rd out of 6 in Oak Bay
• Price rank: 1st out of 3 (most expensive condos in Oak Bay)

The predicted market value of $3,342,765 is actually dipping slightly below the 3-month moving average of $3,344,362. A small pullback, but something to watch if you are a condo owner thinking about timing your exit.

The Secret Sauce - Why Your HonestDoor Price Is the Number That Actually Matters

Here is the thing about your city assessment - it is a snapshot from the past. The government looks at market data from a fixed date and locks that number in. By the time it lands in your mailbox, the market has already moved on.

For house owners in Henderson, the average assessed value sits at $1,454,363. The average HonestDoor Price is $1,564,009. That is a gap of roughly $110,000 - and that is money that belongs to you, not to an outdated spreadsheet. The HonestDoor Price updates in real time using actual transaction data, so it reflects what buyers are paying right now, not what they were paying when the city last checked in.

Yes, the HonestDoor Price for houses has dipped 1.98% from the previous period. That is the market taking a breather. But it is still running 7.54% above the assessed value. If you are using your assessment to make any financial decision - refinancing, listing, or even just knowing where you stand - you are working with incomplete information.

For condo owners, the HonestDoor Price of $3,567,682 is up 3.27% from the previous period. That is a meaningful gain, and it is not showing up anywhere on your tax notice.

The "So What?" - Should You Sell in Henderson This Summer?

If you own a house in Henderson and you are thinking about selling, the honest answer is: the window is open, but it is not wide open. Prices have softened in the short term, but properties are still selling in under a week when they are priced right. That kind of speed tells you demand is real - buyers are just being more selective about value.

The neighbourhood leaderboard stat that should give you confidence: Henderson ranks 2nd out of 6 in Oak Bay for growth. We are not leading the pack, but we are solidly above average. Nearby neighbourhoods like Shelbourne are cheaper and showing slightly faster growth, which means buyers who get priced out of Henderson will keep looking here as a premium option.

If you own a condo, patience is the play. The days-on-market number says buyers take their time with these properties. Price it sharp, market it well, and expect a longer runway to close. The good news is that when condos do sell here, they sell close to full ask.

Bottom line - Henderson is not a market in trouble. It is a market that is recalibrating. If you want to know exactly where your property stands today, check your HonestDoor Price. It is the real-world number, not the government's best guess from six months ago.

This information is all based on our opinions based on the information available to us. Everyone's situation may be different and you should reach out to us for more personalized information.