North Oak Bay, Oak Bay - September 2026 Real Estate Report

North Oak Bay Real Estate: Strong Prices, But the Market Is Taking a Breather

If you own a home in North Oak Bay and you haven't checked your HonestDoor Price lately, now is the time. The city's assessment number on your tax notice is already out of date. The real story is more nuanced - and for most owners here, it's still a good one.

The Vibe: What's Actually Happening on Our Streets

Let's break it down by property type, because houses and condos are telling two different stories right now.

Houses: Steady, But Buyers Have the Edge

If you've been watching the "For Sale" signs in North Oak Bay, here's what's actually happening. Houses are selling at an average of $1,952,500, and listings are sitting at $1,979,500. That gap matters. Buyers are landing deals at about 98.37% of list price - meaning sellers are giving a little ground to close. Not a crash, just a negotiation.

• Average sale price: $1,952,500
• Average list price: $1,979,500
• Sale-to-list ratio: 98.37% - buyers are paying below ask
• Average days on market: 26 days
• Price per square foot: $1,213
• Properties sold recently: 2
• Predicted market value: $1,841,841
• 3-month moving average: $1,811,851 - values are trending up
• Estimated monthly rent: $6,411
• Rental yield: 3.85%

On the neighbourhood leaderboard, North Oak Bay houses rank 4 out of 6 for growth in Oak Bay. That puts us in the middle of the pack - not leading, not falling behind. Days on market rank is 3 out of 6, which means homes here move at a moderate pace. Price rank is 4 out of 6, so we sit below the top tier but well above the entry-level neighbourhoods.

One number worth watching: the predicted value of $1,841,841 is already climbing past the 3-month average of $1,811,851. That's a quiet signal that momentum is building, even if the broader market feels flat.

Condos: Premium Product, But Growth Is Cooling

Condos in North Oak Bay are a different animal. The average HonestDoor Price sits at $3,393,939 - that's a serious number. But it has dropped 3.59% from the previous period, and the predicted value of $3,520,409 is sliding below the 3-month moving average of $3,562,462. The trend is pointing down, at least for now.

• Average HonestDoor Price: $3,393,939 - down 3.59%
• Predicted market value: $3,520,409
• 3-month moving average: $3,562,462 - values are dipping
• Estimated monthly rent: $9,545
• Rental yield: 1.65%
• Airbnb estimate: $474 per night - ranked 2nd in Oak Bay
• Recent value change: -3.52%

On the neighbourhood leaderboard, North Oak Bay condos rank 5 out of 6 for growth in Oak Bay. That puts us near the bottom of the pack for condo appreciation right now. The one bright spot? Our Airbnb rank is 2nd in all of Oak Bay. If you're running a short-term rental here, the demand is real.

The Secret Sauce: Your HonestDoor Price vs. That Tax Assessment

Here's the thing about your BC Assessment notice. It reflects a snapshot from July 1st of the previous year. By the time it lands in your mailbox, it's already old news. The market has moved. Rates have shifted. Buyers have changed what they'll pay.

The HonestDoor Price is updated in real time using actual transaction data. For houses in North Oak Bay, the average HonestDoor Price is $1,810,576 - that's 5.81% higher than the average assessed value of $1,711,212. That gap represents real money. We're talking roughly $99,000 in value that your tax assessment is simply not capturing.

If you're making any financial decision - refinancing, selling, estate planning, even just knowing where you stand - use the number that reflects today's market, not last year's.

The "So What?" - Thinking About Selling This Summer?

Here's the straight talk for anyone considering listing in North Oak Bay this summer.

For house sellers, the market is stable but buyers have options. With homes selling at 98.37% of list price and sitting for about 26 days, you can't just throw a number on the wall and hope. Price it right from day one. The predicted value of $1,841,841 is your anchor, but recent sales at $1,952,500 show there's room above that if your property stands out. A well-presented home in this neighbourhood still commands serious money.

For condo sellers, the window may be tightening. Values have slipped 3.52% recently and the trend is below the 3-month average. That doesn't mean panic - it means don't wait for the market to come back to you. If you're thinking about selling, sooner beats later right now.

For both property types, check your HonestDoor Price before you do anything else. It's the real-world check against a static assessment, and in a market like this, knowing your actual number is the difference between leaving money on the table and walking away with what your property is genuinely worth.

• Total properties assessed in North Oak Bay: 634
• Transactions in 2026: 5
• Neighbourhood year-over-year growth: 0.00% - flat, but not falling
• Average Airbnb rate: $314 per night - ranked 5th in Oak Bay
• Average rental estimate: $6,326 per month

North Oak Bay is not a neighbourhood in trouble. It's a premium pocket of Oak Bay taking a short breather. The fundamentals - location, property quality, rental demand - are all still there. Just go in with your eyes open and your numbers current.

This information is all based on our opinions based on the information available to us. Everyone's situation may be different and you should reach out to us for more personalized information.