Fernwood, Victoria - July 2026 Real Estate Report

Fernwood Real Estate Check-In: Solid Ground, But the Market Is Shifting

If you own a home in Fernwood and you haven't looked at your actual market value lately, now is the time. The city's assessment number is already out of date - and the gap between what the city thinks your place is worth and what buyers will actually pay is wider than you'd expect.

The Vibe: What's Happening in Fernwood Right Now

Fernwood is holding its own. We're sitting at a neighbourhood growth rate of 0.00% year over year, which sounds flat - but flat in a market that's been choppy elsewhere is actually a sign of stability. With 1,666 properties assessed and 12 total transactions recorded in 2026, there's real activity here. Let's break it down by property type.

Houses: Steady, But Buyers Have the Upper Hand

If you've been watching the "For Sale" signs in Fernwood, here's what's actually happening with houses. The average sale price is sitting at $1,039,700, and homes are selling for about 98.54% of list price. That means buyers are consistently paying a little under asking. It's not a fire sale - but sellers aren't getting everything they want either.

• Average sale price: $1,039,700
• Average list price this month: $1,055,180
• Price per square foot: $628
• Average days on market: 16 days
• Sale-to-list ratio: 98.54% - buyers are paying below list
• Predicted market value: $1,104,036
• Rental yield: 4.54%
• Estimated monthly rent: $4,490

The predicted value of $1,104,036 is climbing above the 3-month moving average of $1,084,426, which is a good sign for owners. On the neighbourhood leaderboard, Fernwood houses rank 3rd out of 14 for growth in Victoria - that puts us in the top tier. Days on market rank is 4th out of 12, meaning we're still moving properties at a decent clip. Worth noting: we're selling faster than nearby Rockland, even though Rockland commands higher prices overall.

One thing to watch - homes here are sitting 8 days longer than in South Jubilee. That's the market taking a breather. Not alarming, but worth knowing before you price your listing.

Condos: A Cooling Story Worth Paying Attention To

The condo picture in Fernwood is a bit more complicated, and we'd be doing you a disservice if we sugarcoated it. Condo sale prices dropped 5.8% from last month to an average of $504,000. Only 1 condo sold in the period. Properties are sitting on the market for 16 days - again, longer than South Jubilee's 8 days.

• Average sale price: $504,000 - down 5.8% from last month
• Average list price this month: $520,000
• Price per square foot: $485
• Average days on market: 16 days
• Sale-to-list ratio: 96.92% - buyers are negotiating harder
• Predicted market value: $1,952,608
• Rental yield: 2.80%
• Estimated monthly rent: $6,066

The predicted value of $1,952,608 is actually dipping below the 3-month moving average of $1,964,346, and recent value change is -2.58%. On the leaderboard, Fernwood condos rank 12th out of 14 for growth in Victoria - that puts us near the bottom of the pack right now. The market is cooling here, and the data backs that up. If you're a condo owner thinking about selling, timing matters more than it did six months ago.

The Secret Sauce: Your HonestDoor Price vs. That Government Assessment

Here's the thing most Fernwood homeowners don't realize. The city's assessed value is a snapshot from the past. It doesn't update in real time, and it doesn't account for what's actually happening on your street right now.

For houses, the average assessed value in Fernwood is $1,037,514. The average HonestDoor Price is $1,097,510. That's a $59,996 difference - and the HonestDoor Price is 5.78% higher than what the city has on file. If you're making any financial decision based on your assessment alone, you're working with an incomplete picture.

For condos, the gap is even more striking. The average assessed value is $520,596, while the average HonestDoor Price is $1,941,471. That's a 272.93% difference. The HonestDoor Price is the real-world check - it pulls from current market signals, not last year's paperwork.

Both property types have seen a slight dip of around 0.57-0.59% from the previous period, which is worth watching. But the core point stands: the HonestDoor Price is the number that actually reflects what a buyer would pay today.

The "So What?": Thinking About Selling This Summer?

If you're a Fernwood homeowner weighing a summer sale, here's the straight talk.

For house sellers, the window is still open. You're in a neighbourhood that ranks 3rd out of 14 for growth in Victoria. Predicted values are trending up. Buyers are active. The catch is that they're negotiating - so pricing sharp from day one matters more than ever. Overpricing and chasing the market down is the move to avoid right now.

For condo sellers, the urgency is higher. Values are slipping, the growth rank is 12th out of 14, and buyer demand is softer. If selling is on your radar, sooner is likely better than later. Waiting for the market to bounce back is a gamble the current data doesn't support.

For everyone - pull your HonestDoor Price before you do anything else. It's free, it's current, and it's the number that actually matters when you're deciding whether to list, refinance, or just figure out where you stand. Your city assessment is a starting point. Your HonestDoor Price is the real answer.

This information is all based on our opinions based on the information available to us. Everyone's situation may be different and you should reach out to us for more personalized information.