Duffins Bay, Ajax - September 2026 Real Estate Report

Duffins Bay, Ajax: Your Home Is Probably Worth More Than the City Thinks

The Vibe Right Now

If you live on the water side of Ajax, here is what is actually happening with prices in your neighbourhood. The story is different depending on whether you own a house or a condo - and one of those stories is a lot more interesting than the other.

Houses: Holding Strong With Momentum Building

The average HonestDoor Price for a house in Duffins Bay sits at $880,362. Yes, that is down about 1% from the last period - but before you panic, look at the forward signal. The predicted market value for houses is $888,888, which is already climbing past the 3-month moving average of $884,250. That gap tells us the dip was a breather, not a slide.

• Average HonestDoor Price: $880,362 (down 0.96% from last period)
• Predicted Market Value: $888,888 (above the 3-month average of $884,250)
• Average Rental Estimate: $3,856 per month
• Rental Yield: 4.90% - solid for a Durham Region address
• Airbnb Potential: $192 to $193 per night
• Growth Rank: 3 out of 12 neighbourhoods in Ajax - that puts us in the top quarter of the city

That growth rank is worth pausing on. Out of 12 comparable Ajax neighbourhoods, Duffins Bay houses land at number 3. We are not chasing the pack - we are near the front of it. Discovery Bay is pricier at $1,062,027, but Clover Ridge ($819,077) and Southwood ($789,824) are both trailing us. If you own a house here, you are sitting in a stronger position than most of your Ajax neighbours.

Condos: The Quiet Outperformer

This is the one that should get condo owners' attention. The average HonestDoor Price for condos in Duffins Bay jumped 4.03% from the previous period to $522,041. That is not a rounding error - that is real movement. The predicted market value comes in at $501,824, which is already beating the 3-month moving average of $501,569 and sitting well above nearby Discovery Bay condos at $458,699.

• Average HonestDoor Price: $522,041 (up 4.03% from last period)
• Predicted Market Value: $501,824
• Average Rental Estimate: $2,619 per month
• Rental Yield: 3.84%
• Airbnb Potential: $130 per night
• Growth Rank: 2 out of 12 neighbourhoods in Ajax - that is top tier

A growth rank of 2 out of 12 puts Duffins Bay condos in elite company for Ajax. Clover Ridge condos average $550,238, so there is still room to run. Discovery Bay and Southwood are both cheaper. We are not the most expensive condo market in the area, but we are one of the fastest moving - and that matters if you are thinking about your next move.

The Secret Sauce: Why Your HonestDoor Price Matters More Than Your Tax Assessment

Here is the thing about your city assessment - it is a snapshot from the past. The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation updates values on a cycle, which means your official assessment could be reflecting a market that no longer exists. In a neighbourhood like Duffins Bay, where condo prices just moved 4% in a single period and house values are trending back up, that lag can cost you real money.

The HonestDoor Price is updated in real time using actual market signals. It is not what the city decided your home was worth two years ago. It is what the market is saying right now. For Duffins Bay homeowners, checking your HonestDoor Price today is the difference between pricing your home based on stale data and pricing it based on what buyers are actually paying in your neighbourhood this season.

So What Does This Mean If You Are Thinking About Selling This Summer?

Straight talk - the timing is not bad. Here is why.

For house sellers, the predicted value of $888,888 is moving in the right direction after a small dip. You are in a top-3 growth neighbourhood in Ajax. Buyers who got priced out of Discovery Bay are looking at Duffins Bay as the logical next step. That is real demand pressure working in your favour.

For condo sellers, the 4.03% price jump is the kind of number that creates urgency. Buyers watch these trends too. Getting your unit listed while momentum is visible on paper is smarter than waiting to see if it holds. A growth rank of 2 out of 12 is a selling point - use it.

Either way, the first thing to do before you call an agent is pull your HonestDoor Price. Know your real number. Do not walk into a listing conversation armed with an assessment that was set when the market looked completely different. Your home has likely moved - and in Duffins Bay right now, that move is probably in your favour.

This information is all based on our opinions based on the information available to us. Everyone's situation may be different and you should reach out to us for more personalized information.